Featured Image: Negotiations between Saudi and U.S. officials (Source: Middle East Institute)
By Keith Pemberton
In the decade following the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative and The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus, the United States has experienced a pronounced downturn in targeted infrastructure investments in the Arabian Gulf. This waning influence necessitates a critical reassessment of foreign policy in the region. Stability across the Global South continues to erode due to Chinese and Russian influence. Gulf States, namely Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, find themselves at the center of this renewed Great Powers Competition. The current pursuit of influence in this region is not a novel concept but rather follows past precedents. For example, the Eisenhower Doctrine and Twin Pillars Strategy sought to promote regional stability through the containment of communism. However, the 21st century has introduced new barriers to fostering ties in the Gulf, as authoritarian regimes threaten America’s influence abroad.
Power struggles stemming from the Arab Spring protests have enabled outside actors to increase their presence in the Gulf. Specifically, the Belt and Road Initiative has allowed Beijing to embed infrastructure in the Gulf States. Over the past two decades, China has become Saudi Arabia’s leading trading partner and helped the Kingdom build its petrochemical industry. By investing over twelve billion dollars in the oil industry, China has expanded its bilateral relationship beyond economic influence. Today, government-owned enterprises in Saudi Arabia, like Saudi Aramco, are influenced by China’s traditional state-owned enterprises, which seek to disrupt US interests in the global economy. Consequently, the large-scale infrastructure projects initiated by China in Saudi Arabia indicate a growing effort to limit America’s presence in the Gulf.
Russia’s involvement has grown in the Gulf through the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus, formed in 2019 to oppose other oil-producing countries like the United States. OPEC+ created a monopoly against Western nations by regulating oil prices, facing criticism for causing inflation. Russia’s leadership in the organization demonstrates its desire to draw Gulf States away from Western institutions and further its own interests, especially in the war against Ukraine. Despite sanctions imposed by the United States at the start of Russia’s invasion, its continued efforts have been supported by its relationships in OPEC+. Specifically, the UAE serves as an ally, providing a monetary safety net and arranging prisoner exchanges. Yet, the most alarming development is Saudi Arabia’s and the UAE’s acceptance of invitations to join BRICS, an intergovernmental organization with the ability to destabilize the US dollar. Thus, the United States’ positionality in the region is inevitably threatened—, a loss of influence that could prove damaging for future regional security.
An effective strategy to strengthen U.S. ties in the Gulf lies in technology policy, supporting the establishment of critical infrastructure to combat cybercrime and extremist groups. In 2024, the Gulf Security Council (GCC) unveiled its vision for the region’s development. Heads of State from Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates collectively agreed to prioritize enhancing cybersecurity levels and combatting acts of terror.
The United States is uniquely qualified to help the GCC fulfill these objectives and, in turn, strengthen ties with the region. In the cyberspace realm, America has already proven to be a dependable partner. Specifically, the US State Department’s Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy recently engaged in a Cyber and Digital Dialogue with Jordan. This second annual session highlighted methods to promote a safer cyberspace community in the Levant.. Jordan’s leap from 71st to 27th in global cybersecurity rankings demonstrates the success of this collaborative effort. The Gulf, specifically Saudi Arabia and the UAE, faces the effects of a weak cybersecurity ecosystem. In the past year, cyberattacks have risen by 70% in the region, with the UAE experiencing over 50,000 incidents a day and losing 8 million dollars per incident. Implementing similar dialogues and initiatives to those in Jordan with the Gulf States will enhance their ability to counter these digital threats and strengthen bilateral relationships.
Regarding counterterrorism efforts, the United States is also poised to support GCC interests due to its unique advantage in the emerging technologies industry. Having invested more than $4 billion into AI, the U.S. is undoubtedly a leader in the global critical infrastructure ecosystem. While revolutionary advancements have benefited U.S.interests, cutting-edge technologies have also become accessible to extremist groups. For example, unmanned aerial vehicles are increasingly powered by artificial intelligence to become more autonomous. The decade-long Houthi rebel-Saudi Arabian conflict began with a drone attack. Access to advanced technology will only enable the Houthi rebels to inflict more acts of terror against Saudi Arabia and its allies across the Gulf. To prevent the rise of extremist groups, GCC member states must have increasingly advanced resources to combat these threats. Consequently, the United States can fund technologies like surveillance drones and AI-powered applications to rebuild alliances.
These efforts to assist the collective goals of the GCC would cultivate strategic partnerships, tipping the geopolitical landscape in favor of the United States. This shift will prove to be a worthwhile endeavor in an increasingly innovation-reliant global community and reaffirm a foundational anchor in a critical region.
Keith Pemberton is a sophomore in Branford College. He can be contacted at keith.pemberton@yale.edu.